Nuggets vs. Thunder odds, line, spread: 2021 NBA picks, Jan. 19 predictions from model on 68-39 roll

The Tuesday NBA schedule is relatively light with only two games on the docket. However, the matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets should be intriguing. The Thunder are 6-6 this season, and OKC will be looking for a fourth consecutive road win. The Nuggets are a disappointing 6-7 so far in 2020-21, but Denver has the benefit of home-court advantage in this matchup.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Denver. William Hill Sportsbook lists Denver as a 9.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 220 in the latest Nuggets vs. Thunder odds. Before making any Thunder vs. Nuggets picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it is also on a stunning 68-39 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Thunder. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Thunder vs. Nuggets:

  • Thunder vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -9.5
  • Thunder vs. Nuggets over-under: 220 points
  • Thunder vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -450, Thunder +340
  • OKC: The Thunder are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games

Latest Odds:

Denver Nuggets

Why the Thunder can cover

Oklahoma City is performing well in the early going, even with some personnel challenges. The Thunder are above-average at protecting the ball on the offensive end, committing a turnover on only 14.4 percent of offensive possessions, and they are led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The third-year guard is averaging 21.6 points, 6.2 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game, and he will put pressure on Denver’s perimeter defense. 

On the other end, OKC is a top-eight team in the NBA in defensive rebound rate (75.0 percent) and free throw rate, with an above-average mark in shooting efficiency allowed. The Thunder are also No. 1 in the league in transition defense, allowing only 8.8 fast break points allowed per game.

Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver is led by a legitimate MVP candidate in Nikola Jokic. The All-NBA big man is averaging a triple-double with 25.0 points, 11.4 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game this season, and Jokic is the offensive hub for the Nuggets. He is flanked by Jamal Murray, who broke out as a star in the Orlando bubble, and he is averaging 20.3 points per game this season. 

All told, the Nuggets are extremely difficult to defend, and that manifests with an offensive rating of 115.4 points per 100 possessions. Denver also leads the NBA in offensive rebound rate, with high-end shooting numbers and the ability to share the ball and put pressure on the opposition.

How to make Nuggets vs. Thunder picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with the teams projected to combine for 217 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Thunder vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Thunder vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.

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