NFL Super Bowl odds 2022: Model shares predictions, picks to win, teams to avoid

The Kansas City Chiefs, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, are the favorites in the latest 2022 Super Bowl odds at +525. Not far behind are the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as they look to defend their title with +650 Super Bowl 56 odds to repeat. A trio of teams, the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, have NFL odds of +1400, though the Buffalo Bills are sitting the No. 3 spot at +1300 following a breakout campaign from quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, keyed by head coach Urban Meyer and rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence, are +10000, but no team can match the Houston Texans. With uncertainty up and down the roster, the Texans are the biggest long shot, with Super Bowl 2022 odds of +20000. Before making any 2022 Super Bowl picks, you need to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has set its sights on finding value in the 2022 Super Bowl odds. You can see its top NFL picks and predictions here.

Top 2022 Super Bowl predictions

After simulating the season 10,000 times, the model finds value in the Saints, even though they’re long shots at +2500 to win the Super Bowl. After a lengthy run as one of the annual betting favorites, the Saints are in a period of transition. Drew Brees isn’t walking through the door for New Orleans, but this is a roster that is built to win now with one of the deepest talent pools in the NFL. The quarterback competition between Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston may go all the way into the preseason, but both bring intriguing skills, with Hill as a potentially valuable dual-threat weapon, while Winston is the more traditional passer.

While New Orleans was best known for offense through the lens of Brees, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and head coach Sean Payton in recent years, the Saints were also strong defensively in 2020. They return the bulk of a unit that finished fourth in the NFL in total defense, yielding just 310.9 yards per game. The model shows a 5.0 percent chance of the Saints winning Super Bowl LVI, greatly outpacing their implied probability of 3.8.

Another curveball: The model is fading the Buccaneers, even though they’re one of the top favorites at +650 and just hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Tampa Bay is coming off a dream season. After finishing second in the NFC South, the Buccaneers ran the table in the playoffs and upset the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the franchise’s second title. Veteran running back Giovani Bernard joins a team that did not lose any key players in the offseason.

However, Tampa Bay is winning the Super Bowl in just 12.3 percent of SportsLine’s simulations. At the team’s current price of +650, the Buccaneers have an implied winning percentage of 13.3, meaning they do not offer value at their price. There are far better 2022 Super Bowl bets to make, according to the model.

How to make 2022 Super Bowl picks

The model is also high on a juicy long shot in the AFC that would pay even better than the Colts. You need to see the model’s analysis before making any Super Bowl 56 bets.

So which long shot provides a juicy price to win Super Bowl LVI? And what other teams provide value at their current Super Bowl 2022 odds? Check out the latest Super Bowl LVI odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the picks from the model that’s up almost $7,900.

2022 Super Bowl odds to win

Chiefs +525
Buccaneers +650
Bills +1300
Ravens +1400
Rams +1400
49ers +1400
Packers +1600
Browns +1800
Broncos +2000
Colts +2500
Saints +2500
Seahawks +2500
Dolphins +2800
Cowboys +2800
Titans +3000
Patriots +3000
Steelers +3500
Chargers +3500
Cardinals +4000
Vikings +4000
Falcons +5000
Bears +5000
Washington Football Team +5000
Panthers +6000
Raiders +7000
Giants +7500
Eagles +7500
Bengals +10000
Jaguars +10000
Jets +10000
Lions +15000
Texans +20000

Source link

Related Articles