Bills vs. Chiefs odds, line: NFL picks, 2021 AFC Championship Game predictions by model on 120-78 run

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will put it all on the line when the teams meet on Sunday in the 2021 AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. The Bills (15-3) won the AFC East and earned their first playoff victory since 1995 before stifling the Ravens in a 17-3 win last week. Defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City (15-2) held off Cleveland 22-17 after star quarterback Patrick Mahomes (concussion) was knocked out, but could return on Sunday. The teams met in Week 6, when the Chiefs ran all over Buffalo in a 26-17 win.

Kickoff is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists Kansas City as a three-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Chiefs odds, with the over-under for total points scored set at 53.5. Before making any Chiefs vs. Bills picks, see the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters Championship Weekend in the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are the latest NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Bills:

  • Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -3
  • Bills vs. Chiefs over-under: 53.5
  • Bills vs. Chiefs money line: Buffalo +125, Kansas City -145
  • BUFF: WR Stefon Diggs has at least six receptions in 15 straight games
  • KC: TE Travis Kelce has at least eight catches in eight of the past nine games

Latest Odds:

Kansas City Chiefs

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 6-1 against the spread in its last six meetings against AFC teams, and Mahomes leads the league’s top offense. The unit averages more than 415 yards per game, with 303 through the air (both lead the NFL), and Mahomes was second in the NFL in regular-season passing yards (4,740). He threw for 255 and a touchdown last week despite missing a quarter-and-a-half and could be released from the concussion protocol in time for the game.

Either Mahomes or backup Chad Henne will count on All-Pros Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, who both had eight catches for more than 100 yards against the Browns. The Chiefs rushed for 123 yards last Sunday, led by Darrel Williams‘ 78, and ran for 245 in the Week 6 win in Buffalo. The Bills rank 20th in run defense, allowing nearly 108 yards per game.

Why the Bills can cover

The road team is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between the teams, and quarterback Josh Allen is a rising star. He leads the league’s No. 2 offense and developed a strong rapport with receiver Stefon Diggs. The latter led the NFL in catches (127) and receiving yards (1,535) in the regular season, and Allen was fifth in passing (4,544). They have hooked up 14 times for 234 yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff games.

The Bills are 5-1 against the spread in their last six meetings in Kansas City, and the offense has other impact players. Running back Devin Singletary has 81 total yards on 16 touches in the 2021 NFL Playoffs, while receivers John Brown and Cole Beasley have combined for 15 catches and 109 yards.

Buffalo’s defense has advanced markedly since the last meeting, with ends Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison (combined three sacks last Sunday) applying pressure, while Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer make plays in the secondary.

How to make Bills vs. Chiefs picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under, with the simulations showing the teams combining for 50 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see which side to back here.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Bills in the 2021 NFL Playoffs? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Chiefs vs. Bills spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 120-78 roll, and find out.

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