2021 UEFA Champions League odds, picks: Soccer model reveals best bets for Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea

Atletico Madrid takes on Chelsea on Tuesday in the first leg of its Round of 16 matchup in the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League. The match is Atletico’s home leg, but the game was moved to Bucharest, Romania because of the coronavirus pandemic. Atletico Madrid comes in off a stunning 2-0 La Liga loss to Levante that narrowed its lead over Real Madrid atop the league table to just three points. Chelsea, meanwhile, played to a 1-1 draw with Southampton on Saturday but has gone 5-0-2 since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager.    

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m ET at National Arena in Bucharest, Romania. The latest Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Atletico at +160 on the money line, while the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before you make any Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid picks, be sure to see the UEFA Champions League predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proprietary European soccer model.

Created by two Norwegians — professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim — the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Since coming to SportsLine in 2019, the algorithm is up more than $8,900.

The model also made some strong calls in the final group stage of the Champions League, correctly predicting RB Leipzig (+150) defeating Manchester United, Sevilla (+135) knocking off Rennes and Liverpool playing to a draw (+275) with Midtjylland.

Now, the model has set its sights on Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several odds and trends for Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid:

  • Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea spread: Atletico -0.5
  • Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea over-under: 2.5 goals
  • Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea money line: Atletico +160, Chelsea +200
  • AM: MF Marcos Llorente has two goals and two assists over the last four games.
  • CHE: The Blues have outscored opponents 9-2 in the seven games under Thomas Tuchel.

Why you should back Atletico Madrid 

The squad has been in a bit of a slump, taking just five points in four games this month, but its loss to Levante was its first in La Liga since December. Atletico had numerous chances in the match, putting 28 shots on goal. Luis Suarez hit the post on a powerful free kick, Angel Correa had a goal disallowed on a foul and Joao Felix missed two pure chances.

Suarez is one of the world’s top strikers and has 16 goals, tied for La Liga lead with Lionel Messi. Marcos Llorente has eight goals and a team-high seven assists. The club has had Champions League success but is hungry for more, as it’s the only major trophy Atletico hasn’t won. Atletico was the runner-up in 2013-14 and 2015-16 and reached the semifinals in 2016-17.

Why you should back Chelsea 

The Blues had won five in a row before the draw with Southampton, and Tuchel is finding a balance between offense and defense. They face an Atletico side that played three games in six days coming in, including two bruising matches with Levante. Chelsea’s strength is on defense, and the goal allowed Saturday was the first scored by an opposing player under Tuchel.

Chelsea has scorers in Tammy Abraham (team-high six goals), Timo Werner (five) and Jorginho (five). Four other players have netted at least four. Werner and Mason Mount set up their teammates for success, with Werner leading the team with five assists and Mount adding four. The attacking style of Atletico yields goals, with 10 allowed in its last seven games.   

How to make Champions League picks for Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea

The model is leaning under on the total, and it has also locked in its projected final score and spread pick. You can only get these picks at SportsLine

So who wins Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that’s up more than $8,900.

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