2021 NBA Playoffs: Nuggets vs. Blazers odds, line, picks, Game 4 predictions from model on 99-66 roll

The Denver Nuggets will try to take a commanding lead in the series when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday for Game 4 of their first-round playoff matchup in the 2021 NBA Playoffs. The Nuggets have won the past two to go up 2-1, with Austin Rivers taking over in the fourth quarter of Game 3 to lead Denver to a 120-115 victory. Portland’s Damian Lillard and Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets have been battling to be the top scorer throughout the series, and Lillard had a game-high 37 points while Jokic had 36 in Game 3. Rivers had 21 points, with 16 of those in the fourth quarter.

Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET at the Moda Center in Portland, Ore. Portland is favored by four points in the latest Nuggets vs. Blazers odds at William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 227.5. Before making any Blazers vs. Nuggets picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $800 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the first full week of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 99-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen massive returns.  

Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Blazers in the NBA Playoffs 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Blazers vs. Nuggets:

  • Nuggets vs. Blazers: Portland -4
  • Nuggets vs. Blazers over-under: 227.5
  • Nuggets vs. Blazers money line: Denver +155, Portland -175
  • DEN: Jokic led the NBA in player efficiency rating (31.3) and win shares (15.6) in the regular season.
  • PORT: Lillard (9.6) trailed only Jokic (12.2) in offensive win shares during the regular season. 

Featured Game | Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets

Why the Blazers can cover

Portland can turn on the scoring at any moment behind Lillard and CJ McCollum, and injuries to Jamal Murray (knee) and Will Barton (hamstring) have left Denver thin in the backcourt defensively. Lillard was third in the league in scoring (28.8 points per game) in the regular season and is averaging 37.7 points and adding 9.3 assists in this series. McCollum is scoring more than 21 and chipping in seven rebounds. Jusuf Nurkic scored 13 and had 13 rebounds before he fouled out Thursday, and he is grabbing 12.7 boards per game in the series. He and McCollum are combining for 16 rebounds on the defensive end.

The Blazers struggled mightily from outside in Game 3, hitting just 31.1 percent. That was well below their 38.5-percent clip in the regular season, which ranked sixth in the league. The Nuggets hit 52.6 percent of their tries from outside after averaging 37.7 during the season (eighth in NBA). Rivers, who had an uncertain future two months ago, hit five of 10 threes to lead Denver to the win. He is a career 35-percent 3-point shooter and had 15 points over the first two games. Portland is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven meetings between the teams.

Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver is 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 meetings in Portland, and Jokic has been able to dominate. The 6-foot-11, 284-pound center is averaging 36 points and 11.7 rebounds, making 57.7 percent of his shots. He hit 75 percent from the field in Game 2, then hit 57 percent (4-for-7) from outside in Game 3. The Blazers ranked 25th in the NBA in opponent field-goal percentage (47.3) in the regular season, while Denver shot 48.5 (fourth). Denver is making more than 50 percent of its shots overall and more than 42 percent from 3-point range in the series.

Six Denver players are averaging at least 10 points in the series, and Facundo Campazzo and Monte Morris are combining for 12 assists. They also are teaming up for 3.3 steals, and the Nuggets are scoring more than 16 points off turnovers as Portland averages more than 10 per game. Rivers has hit seven of his 13 threes over the past two games, but Michael Porter Jr. is the top outside option. He was ninth in the league at 44.5 percent and has hit six of 11 in the past two games. He is averaging 19.3 points, six rebounds and a steal per game in the series.     

How to make Blazers vs. Nuggets picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Blazers vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.

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