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2021 NBA Playoffs: Mavericks vs. Clippers odds, line, picks, Game 6 predictions from model on 100-66 roll

The Los Angeles Clippers visit the Dallas Mavericks in a pivotal Game 6 matchup in the 2021 NBA Playoffs on Friday. Los Angeles trails by a 3-2 margin in the series after losing Game 5 on its home floor on Wednesday. Serge Ibaka (back) is listed as doubtful for Los Angeles. Luka Doncic (cervical) and Maxi Kleber (Achilles) are listed as probable for Dallas.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Dallas. William Hill Sportsbook lists Los Angeles as the 2.5-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 216.5 in the latest Clippers vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Clippers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,100 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $900 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the second full week of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Clippers vs. Mavericks in the NBA Playoffs 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Mavericks vs. Clippers:

  • Clippers vs. Mavericks spread: Clippers -2.5
  • Clippers vs. Mavericks over-under: 216.5 points
  • Clippers vs. Mavericks money line: Clippers -140, Mavericks +120
  • LAC: The Clippers are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Why the Clippers can cover

The Clippers are trailing in the series, but they have the better net rating in the matchup. Beyond that, Los Angeles deploys an elite offense and, when compared to Dallas, the Clippers also have the better defensive talent. Kawhi Leonard is averaging 30.4 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, keying the Clippers offensively, and he adds 2.0 steals and 1.2 blocks per contest as a defensive playmaker. The Clippers were the No. 3 offense in the regular season, scoring 116.7 points per 100 possessions, and that figure jumps to 119.9 points per 100 possessions in the series. 

Los Angeles has a blistering 60.9 percent true shooting mark and, with a very strong 11.8 percent turnover rate, the formula is in place for tremendous efficiency. On the defensive end, the Clippers seemingly found their footing despite the loss in Game 5. Doncic was red-hot and the Clippers held the Mavericks to just 105 points. With some shooting regression, Los Angeles could keep the series-long streak of road success.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas is keyed by the singular talent of Doncic. The third-year creator is averaging 35.0 points, 9.4 assists and 8.0 rebounds per game in the series, and Doncic produced 44 points and 14 assists in a memorable Game 5 win. He is flanked by a strong supporting cast, headlined by Tim Hardaway Jr. on the outside and Kristaps Porzingis near the rim, and the Mavericks are an excellent offensive team. 

Dallas scored nearly 1.15 points per possession in the regular season, and the Mavericks are exceeding 1.16 points per possession in this series. The Mavericks have a strong 28.5 percent offensive rebound rate against the Clippers, and they are committing a turnover on only 11.1 percent of possessions, an elite metric. Defensively, Dallas has a tough matchup against the high-powered Clippers, but it held Los Angeles to just 100 points in Game 5 and the Mavericks were No. 2 in the NBA in assists allowed this season, yielding only 22.7 dimes per game.

How to make Clippers vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 221 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Clippers vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.




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